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This year might see the start of softening extra-heavy truck sales in South Africa owing to activity in the rail sector, said UD Trucks Southern Africa (UDTSA) corporate planning and marketing GM Rory Schulz on Wednesday.
Addressing the media in Johannesburg, he noted that projects by parastatal Transnet to procure new locomotives and to build a new coal line through Swaziland “could start impacting on sales in the extra-heavy commercial vehicle market”.
“Lots of minerals are transported by extra-heavy trucks. We will see the impact, slowly but surely, as these projects are rolled out. They [Transnet] are moving more aggresively than we have seen in the last few years,” noted Schulz.
Other challenges to the local truck industry included volatile currency movements, which could push up prices and dent sales. Global political instability could also increase fuel prices, furthering hampering growth in the truck sector.
Schulz was also wary of a eurozone meltdown and how that could impact on the Southern African economy.
The local truck assembly industry was also facing a policy change to a new, not yet completed government support programme at the end of the year as the current Motor Industry Development Programme came to an end.
Despite these negative factors, Schulz noted that UDTSA still expected new truck sales in South Africa to jump by 12.3% in 2012, to reach 29 358 units. This forecast included an estimate on Mercedes-Benz South Africa (MBSA) sales.
MBSA in December stopped reporting local sales, on a directive from its German parent company. This related to an European Union Competition Commission investigation into European truck makers.
Truck sales numbered 26 149 units in 2011, again including an estimate on MBSA sales (for December).
The bus market was up 37.6% in 2011 over 2010, the extra-heavy truck market 35.4%, heavy trucks 5.69%, and medium commercial vehicles 15.3%.
Schulz regarded the 2011 market as “healthy”, as it remained far above 1994’s dismal 8 958 units sold.
The 2011 market saw MBSA again take top spot in terms of market share, at 17.24%, followed by Hino at 13.1%, UDTSA at 12.51%, Isuzu at 10.68% and MAN at 7.22%.
“The local market is still dominated by European and Japanese manufacturers,” said Schulz.
UDTSA grew sales by 27.67% in 2011 compared with 2010, to reach 3 234 units.
For the 2012 South African market, Schulz expected the bus market to grow by 10.4%, the extra-heavy truck market by 10.96%, heavy trucks by 17.95%, and medium commercial vehicles by 11.13%.
Schulz warned, however, that “another global event”, such as 2011’s devastating earthquake in Japan, would see this forecast brought to ruin.
“We expect to have a reasonably good year in 2012.”
As for UDTSA, sales expectations were in the region of 4 000 units for 2012. However, with a focused product development plan on the horizon for the African markets the company had become responsible for, the aim was to sell 10 000 units in 2015, noted Schulz.
“We have very, very aggressive product plans.”
The South African market would see the launch of the new UD Quon range in March.
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